MicroStrategy stands on the brink of a historic milestone — potential inclusion in the S&P 500 index. While not yet confirmed, all signs point toward a strong possibility, pending the release of its Q2 2025 earnings report on June 30. If the company reports positive cumulative earnings over the past four quarters, it will meet the final criterion for entry into one of the most influential equity benchmarks in the world.
This development could trigger a market movement comparable to — or even greater than — what Coinbase experienced after its S&P 500 inclusion in May 2025. At that time, COIN stock surged 24% in a single day, marking one of its strongest rallies in recent history. Today, Coinbase trades near a 42-week high at $355.37, having briefly touched $369.28, underscoring the long-term impact such recognition can have.
Now, all eyes are on MicroStrategy (MSTR), currently trading at $388.67, as analysts predict a similar, if not more powerful, reaction should inclusion be confirmed.
Why MicroStrategy’s S&P 500 Inclusion Matters
For any publicly traded company, being added to the S&P 500 is more than symbolic — it’s transformative. The index is tracked by trillions of dollars in passive investment funds, meaning inclusion automatically drives massive institutional demand.
To qualify, companies must meet several strict criteria:
- U.S. headquarters
- Market capitalization within the top 500
- Sufficient public float and liquidity
- Positive earnings over the last four consecutive quarters
MicroStrategy already satisfies every requirement except one: four-quarter cumulative profitability. That final hurdle hinges largely on Bitcoin’s performance — and with BTC recently trading above $107,400, MSTR’s Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet is poised for record gains.
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The Bitcoin Factor in Earnings
Unlike traditional corporations, MicroStrategy's profitability is deeply tied to the price of Bitcoin. The company holds over 250,000 BTC, making unrealized gains a major component of its financial health. As Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory — fueled by ETF inflows, macroeconomic trends, and growing mainstream acceptance — MSTR’s Q2 earnings are expected to reflect substantial value appreciation.
Analysts estimate that sustained BTC prices above $100,000 could generate billions in paper profits, easily clearing the path for S&P 500 eligibility.
Stock expert Jeff Walton has placed the odds of qualification at 94.2%, citing strong fundamentals and favorable market conditions. If correct, MSTR would become only the second major crypto-linked firm in the index after Coinbase — but with a far more concentrated exposure to digital assets.
A Catalyst for Broader Market Acceptance
The implications go beyond stock price movements. MicroStrategy’s inclusion would signal a pivotal shift in how traditional finance views Bitcoin. No longer just an asset held by retail investors or speculative traders, BTC would be indirectly owned by countless pension funds, mutual funds, and ETFs simply by tracking the S&P 500.
“If MSTR joins the index, then $15.6T of capital suddenly has to take a position whether fund managers like Bitcoin or not,” says market analyst Chris.
This forced adoption mechanism is what makes the event so powerful. Fund managers don’t need to believe in cryptocurrency — they just need to follow the index.
Price Projections: What Could Happen to MSTR Stock?
With Coinbase serving as a real-world case study, investors are eager to forecast MicroStrategy’s potential trajectory.
After its inclusion announcement, COIN saw immediate demand from index-tracking funds, pushing its valuation sharply higher. A similar dynamic could unfold for MSTR, especially given its tighter float and higher institutional interest.
Current technical analysis suggests:
- A breakout above $390** could open the door to **$404–$405
- Strong support lies between $377 and $386.50
- In an optimistic scenario, MSTR could reach **$500 or more**, approaching its 52-week high of $543
Stock analyst Real Blonde Broker notes that momentum is building:
“$MSTR needs to break out at $390… Idk if it puts in a right shoulder like the left side then goes or if just continues to climb.”
With Bitcoin ETF inflows accelerating and macro sentiment improving, MSTR’s fundamentals align with a bullish outlook even before factoring in index inclusion.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What criteria must MicroStrategy meet for S&P 500 inclusion?
MicroStrategy must have a U.S. headquarters, sufficient market cap and liquidity, adequate public float, and positive cumulative earnings over the past four quarters. All but the earnings requirement have already been met.
When will we know if MicroStrategy qualifies?
The Q2 2025 earnings report is scheduled for release on June 30, which will reveal whether the company has achieved four consecutive profitable quarters.
How did Coinbase’s stock react to S&P 500 inclusion?
Coinbase stock (COIN) surged 24% immediately after the announcement and has since reached a 42-week high at $369.28, demonstrating strong post-inclusion momentum.
Could MicroStrategy’s stock outperform Coinbase’s reaction?
Possibly. Due to MSTR’s deeper ties to Bitcoin and lower public float, demand from index funds could create even greater price pressure than seen with COIN.
What role does Bitcoin’s price play in MSTR’s earnings?
Bitcoin’s market value directly impacts MSTR’s balance sheet. With over 250,000 BTC held, rising prices translate into significant unrealized gains that contribute to quarterly profitability.
Why is S&P 500 inclusion significant for crypto adoption?
It forces trillions in passive investments to gain indirect exposure to Bitcoin through MicroStrategy, legitimizing digital assets within traditional finance.
Final Outlook: A Turning Point for Crypto-Native Companies
MicroStrategy’s potential S&P 500 inclusion isn’t just a corporate milestone — it’s a watershed moment for the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. It represents formal recognition that a company built around Bitcoin can meet the rigorous standards of mainstream financial markets.
If confirmed, this move could catalyze:
- Increased investor confidence in crypto-native business models
- Greater integration of digital assets into institutional portfolios
- Higher valuations for companies with strategic BTC holdings
While Coinbase paved the way, MicroStrategy may go further by embedding Bitcoin directly into its core operations. Its success could inspire other corporations to follow suit, creating a ripple effect across global capital markets.
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As June 30 approaches, all indicators suggest that MicroStrategy is on the cusp of transformation — not just for its shareholders, but for the future of finance itself.
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