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清华博导罗玫：加密数字货币市场的系统性风险高于股票

The world of digital finance has evolved rapidly since the emergence of blockchain technology, and with it, the rise of cryptocurrencies has sparked intense debate among economists, investors, and regulators. In a landmark speech delivered at the 2018 China International Big Data Industry Expo (Big Data Expo) in Guiyang, Professor Luo Mei — doctoral supervisor at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management and independent director at Canaan Creative — offered a rigorous analysis of the fundamental drivers behind cryptocurrency pricing. Her insights remain highly relevant today, especially for those seeking to understand the systemic risks, market dynamics, and valuation factors that distinguish digital assets from traditional equities.

Why Accounting Experts Are Studying Cryptocurrencies

At first glance, it may seem unusual for an accounting professor to delve into the volatile world of crypto. However, Professor Luo Mei explains that her academic focus on the relationship between stock investment and financial accounting naturally extends to digital currencies. As cryptocurrencies become accessible to the general public, many of the same economic forces influencing stock markets begin to affect crypto valuations — but with critical differences that amplify risk.

"Just as investors analyze earnings reports and corporate governance before buying shares," she notes, "we must develop new frameworks to assess the fundamentals of blockchain projects."

👉 Discover how financial experts evaluate next-generation digital assets

Parallels Between Crypto and Stock Markets

Both cryptocurrency markets and stock markets are driven by supply and demand, investor sentiment, liquidity, and regulatory developments. Traditional investors examine:

These elements shape stock prices over time. But when applied to cryptocurrencies, this framework requires significant adaptation.

One key distinction is market structure. In public equity markets, retail investors participate almost exclusively in the secondary market — after IPOs have concluded. The primary market (initial fundraising) typically doesn’t directly influence ongoing share prices unless major offerings or buybacks occur.

In contrast, cryptocurrencies are influenced simultaneously by both primary and secondary market forces. Initial coin offerings (ICOs), private sales, team allocations, and vesting schedules all continue to exert downward or upward pressure on prices long after tokens enter exchanges. This dual-layered exposure dramatically increases volatility and systemic risk.

The Role of Whitepapers in Fundamental Analysis

For stocks, investors rely on SEC filings, annual reports, and analyst coverage. For cryptocurrencies, the closest equivalent is the project whitepaper.

A well-structured whitepaper outlines:

However, Professor Luo warns against blind trust. While prominent advisors may lend credibility, their actual involvement is often minimal or symbolic. Due diligence must go beyond names — verifying real contributions through GitHub activity, public appearances, or technical publications.

Moreover, project maturity varies widely:

Only the latter represents a relatively stable foundation for long-term value.

Measuring Technical Activity: GitHub as a Data Source

Since many crypto projects are open-source, platforms like GitHub provide transparent metrics on development progress. Key indicators include:

Professor Luo’s research found a statistically significant correlation between commit frequency and price movements. High developer activity signals ongoing improvement and community trust — both of which support price appreciation.

For non-technical investors, consulting experts or using analytics tools can help interpret these signals accurately.

External Events That Move Markets

Unlike stocks, which respond primarily to earnings and macroeconomic data, cryptocurrencies are highly sensitive to independent external events, often unpredictable:

These events introduce layers of uncertainty not commonly seen in traditional markets.

👉 Learn how regulatory shifts impact digital asset valuations

User Adoption: The Core Driver of Value

Perhaps the most crucial factor distinguishing successful cryptocurrencies is community size and engagement.

Research shows that when outsiders perceive a blockchain project as technologically transformative, they are more likely to join its ecosystem. As user adoption grows:

This creates a positive feedback loop: higher prices attract more users, who in turn drive further price gains.

Professor Luo draws an analogy between tokenized blockchains ("with coin") and non-tokenized ones ("without coin"):

"Just like financial markets fuel real economies," she says, "tokens empower decentralized ecosystems by aligning economic interests."

Exchange Listing Practices Need Reform

The process by which tokens are listed on exchanges — known as listing mechanisms — plays an outsized role in shaping market perception and liquidity. Yet many major exchanges lack transparent or rigorous standards for vetting projects.

Poorly designed listing criteria can:

Improving transparency in node selection, audit requirements, and team verification would enhance market integrity.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Are cryptocurrencies riskier than stocks?
A: Yes. Cryptocurrencies face higher systemic risk due to combined exposure to primary and secondary market forces, regulatory uncertainty, and lower institutional oversight.

Q: How can I evaluate a crypto project without technical knowledge?
A: Focus on verifiable metrics: GitHub activity, team track record, real-world adoption, and clear token utility. Consult trusted analysts or use data platforms for insights.

Q: Does user base size really affect price?
A: Absolutely. Strong network effects drive demand. Projects with growing communities tend to see sustained price momentum.

Q: Can tax policies impact crypto prices?
A: Yes. Tax events like filing deadlines often trigger selling pressure. Regulatory clarity can boost confidence, while ambiguity increases volatility.

Q: Is the whitepaper enough to judge a project?
A: No. Whitepapers are starting points. Always cross-check claims with code repositories, team backgrounds, and third-party audits.

Q: What makes crypto markets more volatile than stocks?
A: 24/7 trading, global accessibility, speculative behavior, limited historical data, and sensitivity to social media amplify price swings.

👉 Explore tools that help assess project fundamentals and community health

Final Thoughts

Professor Luo Mei’s analysis underscores a vital truth: while cryptocurrencies share surface similarities with stocks, their underlying mechanics are fundamentally different — and often riskier. Investors must adapt traditional financial wisdom to this new paradigm by focusing on technical vitality, community growth, transparent governance, and regulatory preparedness.

As blockchain continues to reshape finance, understanding these core principles will be essential for navigating the future of digital value.

Core Keywords: cryptocurrency market, systemic risk, blockchain technology, token valuation, GitHub activity, user adoption, whitepaper analysis