Will Bitcoin Still Close Above $100K This Year After Recent Pullback?

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The final stretch of what has been a record-breaking year for digital assets is seeing a temporary pause in momentum. Bitcoin, which surged to unprecedented levels earlier in December, is now trading around $96,200 — a notable retreat from its all-time high of $108,316 reached on December 17. Investors are reassessing the market’s trajectory amid shifting sentiment and key macro-level developments.

Despite strong tailwinds throughout 2025 — including growing institutional adoption and favorable regulatory signals — recent price action suggests caution among traders. A combination of profit-taking, derivatives expiration events, and short-term outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs has contributed to increased volatility and uncertainty about whether Bitcoin can reclaim and sustain levels above six figures before year-end.

👉 Discover how market cycles could propel Bitcoin past $100K despite current pullbacks.

Trump’s Pro-Crypto Agenda: A Catalyst or Just Hype?

One of the most influential factors shaping market sentiment this year has been the pro-cryptocurrency stance of President-elect Donald Trump. His repeated calls for a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment and support for establishing a national Bitcoin reserve have energized bullish narratives across the industry.

Trump’s vision includes leveraging America’s strategic position to become a global leader in blockchain innovation. While details remain vague, the mere suggestion of federal involvement in Bitcoin accumulation has sparked speculation about future demand drivers. However, analysts warn that policy proposals need time to materialize — and markets may not wait.

For now, traders are digesting the gap between political rhetoric and actionable legislation. Although optimism persists, some are taking profits following the initial rally post-election, leading to short-term consolidation.

Derivatives Expiry Adds Pressure to Price Action

A major technical event unfolding this week is the expiration of a massive wave of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts. According to data from FalconX, this is one of the largest options expiries in digital asset history.

At Deribit — one of the largest crypto derivatives exchanges — over $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options** and **approximately $3.8 billion in Ethereum options are set to expire. Such large notional values often lead to heightened volatility as market makers adjust hedges and traders close or roll over positions.

Sean McNulty, Trading Head at liquidity provider Arbelos Markets, emphasized that "the convergence of high open interest and narrow timeframes increases the risk of sharp price swings." These derivatives dynamics can temporarily distort spot prices, especially when combined with low liquidity during holiday periods.

Market participants are closely watching the $95,000–$100,000 range for Bitcoin, which now serves as both support and resistance depending on sentiment shifts triggered by expiry flows.

Institutional Moves: Mixed Signals from Major Holders

While retail sentiment shows signs of hesitation, institutional behavior presents a more nuanced picture. MicroStrategy, one of the most prominent corporate Bitcoin holders, recently signaled it may expand its acquisition strategy. The company, which has transitioned from a software business to a de facto Bitcoin investment vehicle, currently holds over 400,000 BTC, valued at more than $40 billion at current prices.

This continued accumulation by trusted institutions reinforces long-term confidence in Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative. However, counterbalancing this strength is a recent trend of outflows from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Data shows that investors pulled $1.5 billion net out of more than a dozen spot Bitcoin ETFs in the four trading days leading up to December 24. This marks the largest outflow since Trump’s election victory on November 5 and suggests that some investors are locking in gains after the recent rally.

👉 See how ETF flows impact Bitcoin’s price trajectory and where smart money might move next.

Can Bitcoin Recover and Sustain $100K+?

The possibility of Bitcoin closing 2025 above $100,000 remains alive — but not guaranteed. Several factors will determine whether the asset regains upward momentum:

Historically, Bitcoin has shown resilience after sharp corrections, often entering new phases of growth following consolidation periods. If confidence returns and selling pressure subsides, a retest of the $108,000 high — and potentially a sustained move above $100,000 — remains within reach.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Why did Bitcoin drop below $100K after hitting an all-time high?
A: The pullback follows typical post-rally behavior — including profit-taking, derivatives expiry impacts, and temporary ETF outflows. It does not necessarily indicate a reversal of long-term trends.

Q: Is the national Bitcoin reserve proposal real or just political talk?
A: As of now, it remains a proposal without formal legislation. However, its endorsement by a major political figure adds credibility and could influence future policy discussions.

Q: How do options expiries affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Large expiries can cause volatility as traders unwind positions and market makers rebalance hedges. Price often gravitates toward strike prices with the highest open interest.

Q: Are ETF outflows a bearish sign for Bitcoin?
A: Not always. Short-term outflows can reflect profit-taking rather than loss of faith. Long-term accumulation trends still favor upward pressure if inflows resume.

Q: What would it take for Bitcoin to close 2025 above $100K?
A: Renewed institutional demand, positive regulatory news, and sustained on-chain activity would be key drivers. A calm derivatives landscape would also help stabilize prices.

Q: Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
A: Timing the market is risky. Dollar-cost averaging and focusing on long-term fundamentals may be more effective strategies than trying to catch the perfect entry point.

👉 Explore real-time data and tools that help you make informed decisions in volatile markets.

Final Outlook: Volatility Ahead, But Bull Case Intact

While Bitcoin faces near-term headwinds — from technical corrections to temporary capital outflows — the broader fundamentals remain strong. The confluence of political support, corporate adoption, and maturing financial infrastructure continues to build a compelling case for higher prices over time.

Closing above $100,000 this year will require renewed buying pressure and reduced uncertainty. Whether driven by institutional re-entry, regulatory clarity, or macro shifts, the catalyst could emerge at any moment.

For investors focused on the long game, short-term fluctuations should be viewed as part of the natural cycle — not a derailment of the trend.

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