The cryptocurrency market continues to evolve amid shifting macroeconomic narratives, institutional developments, and on-chain activity. As Bitcoin consolidates near key resistance levels, investors are closely watching macro indicators, whale behavior, and regulatory milestones. This comprehensive roundup covers the latest trends, expert insights, and structural shifts shaping the digital asset landscape in April 2025.
Trump Policies May Drive Investors Toward Gold Over Bitcoin
Recent U.S. policy directions under former President Donald Trump could be influencing investor behavior in risk assets. According to Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg, investors may be rotating out of volatile digital assets like Bitcoin and into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.
McGlone notes that risk assets are showing signs of reverting to their long-term averages—particularly the 200-week moving average. As of April 20, Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average sits around $46,300, nearly 45% below its current price of approximately $85,000. This divergence suggests a potential correction is overdue, especially if macro uncertainty increases due to policy shifts.
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Exchange Trading Volumes Hit Six-Month Low
Market activity has cooled significantly across major crypto exchanges. According to The Block, the seven-day average trading volume dropped to about $32 billion as of April 20—the lowest level since October 2024. This represents a decline of over 75% from peak volumes seen in December 2024.
Notably, spot trading’s share of total volume has also declined to multi-month lows. The spot-to-futures ratio for Bitcoin fell to 0.19 (lowest since August 2024), while Ethereum dipped to 0.20 (lowest since December 2023). These figures suggest traders are increasingly favoring leveraged futures contracts over direct ownership, signaling heightened speculation amid low liquidity.
Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) has shown slight upticks in on-chain activity, hinting at renewed interest in high-throughput Layer 1 blockchains despite broader market stagnation.
Short-Term Holders Move 170,000 BTC – Volatility Ahead?
CryptoQuant has issued a warning: a significant shift is occurring in Bitcoin’s ownership structure. Data reveals that approximately 170,000 BTC are being transferred out of wallets held by investors who owned the asset for between three and six months—commonly classified as short-term holders.
This movement often precedes major price volatility. Historically, when short-term holders become active, it signals either profit-taking or fear-driven selling. In contrast, long-term holders remain calm—moving only about 529 BTC per day—indicating strong conviction in Bitcoin’s future value.
Such divergence suggests the market may be entering a transitional phase where short-term sentiment could temporarily overpower long-term fundamentals.
Charles Schwab to Launch Spot Crypto Trading Within 12 Months
In a major signal of institutional adoption, Rick Wurster, CEO of Charles Schwab, announced plans to introduce direct spot cryptocurrency trading within the next 12 months. He described spot crypto trading as an inevitable offering for every large brokerage firm.
While Schwab acknowledges the risks associated with crypto’s volatility—including the possibility of total capital loss—it believes demand from retail and institutional clients justifies entry into the space. The move reflects growing confidence that regulatory clarity is improving, paving the way for traditional finance giants to integrate digital assets.
21Shares Forecasts Bitcoin to Reach $138,555 by Year-End
Bullish momentum remains intact according to 21Shares, which projects Bitcoin could climb to $138,555 by December 2025—a 64% increase from current levels. The firm bases its forecast on historical trends, macroeconomic signals, and on-chain data indicating maturing investor behavior.
Key drivers include rising adoption in high-inflation economies and increased use of Bitcoin as a hedge against monetary devaluation. While a pullback toward $77,000 remains possible, broader indicators point to sustained upward pressure. The report emphasizes that the market is currently in an accumulation and consolidation phase—not a speculative peak.
Whale Accumulation Intensifies: Glassnode Signals Bullish Reversal
Glassnode data confirms that large Bitcoin holders—often referred to as "whales" and "sharks"—are accumulating at an unprecedented pace. Addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC are absorbing supply at a rate exceeding 300% of annual issuance.
At the same time, exchange reserves continue to dwindle, with net outflows reaching an annual absorption rate of -200%. This trend underscores a growing preference for self-custody and long-term holding.
Technically, Bitcoin has broken out of a multi-month descending wedge pattern—a historically bullish signal. A sustained move above $88,800 could trigger further upside, potentially pushing prices past $100,000 by May. However, failure to clear this resistance may stall bullish momentum.
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BIS Warns: Crypto Market Has Reached "Critical Size"
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has published a new paper highlighting growing financial stability concerns related to cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance (DeFi). While crypto markets remain largely siloed from traditional finance (TradFi), they have now reached a “critical size” that warrants regulatory attention.
Key risks include:
- The expanding role of stablecoins in DeFi ecosystems
- Tokenization of real-world assets (RWA)
- Structural centralization within supposedly decentralized applications (dApps)
The report calls for deeper analysis of DAO governance models and their systemic implications. It also stresses that dApps—with their user interfaces and centralized control points—represent potential regulatory entry points.
As bridges between DeFi and TradFi grow stronger, the BIS urges policymakers to prepare for interconnected risks.
Tether Surpasses 450 Million Users
Tether (USDT) continues its global expansion. CEO Paolo Ardoino revealed that USDT now has over 450 million users worldwide, with more than 30 million new users added each quarter. Growth is strongest in emerging markets, where USDT functions as a reliable "digital dollar" amid local currency instability.
This widespread adoption reinforces Tether’s role as the backbone of crypto liquidity and cross-border value transfer.
Market Structure Watch: BTC Key Levels and Altcoin Debate
According to Greeks.live analyst Adam, market sentiment is divided. Some traders anticipate strong weekend performance from altcoins—especially Solana (SOL), which has rebounded over 10x from its lows. Others warn this rally may represent a final speculative surge.
Bitcoin’s critical support zone lies between $66,000 and $67,000—a region seen as a concentration of short-position stop losses. On Binance, large buy walls have been observed near key levels, though many are quickly canceled upon approach—suggesting possible price manipulation tactics aimed at triggering stop orders.
Arizona Advances Strategic Digital Asset Reserve Bill
Arizona’s House Committee has approved SB 1373—the Strategic Digital Assets Reserve Act—moving it closer to becoming law. The bill proposes creating a state-managed digital asset reserve fund composed of crypto seized during criminal proceedings.
If passed in its final reading and signed by the governor, Arizona would become one of the first U.S. states to formally hold digital assets on its balance sheet—a symbolic yet significant step toward institutional legitimacy.
Key Threshold for BTC: $90,000 Market Sentiment Pivot
After days of consolidation between $83,000 and $86,000, neither bulls nor bears have gained full control. While support at $83,000 holds for now, failure to reclaim key moving averages limits upside momentum.
Analysts at Bitcoinist emphasize that $90,000 remains the critical threshold for reversing bearish sentiment. A confirmed break above this level could reignite institutional buying. Conversely, a drop below $81,000 might open the door to a deeper correction toward $80,000 or lower.
Michael Saylor Hints at New Bitcoin Purchase
Michael Saylor—founder of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)—has once again posted a cryptic update on X referencing the company’s Bitcoin Tracker: “The number of orange dots isn’t high enough yet.”
Historically, such posts precede official announcements of additional BTC purchases. Given Strategy’s track record of aggressive accumulation during stable price periods, another acquisition may be imminent.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does it mean when short-term holders move large amounts of BTC?
A: It typically signals profit-taking or fear-driven selling after price appreciation. Such activity often precedes increased volatility as supply re-enters the market.
Q: Why is the spot-to-futures trading ratio important?
A: A declining ratio suggests reduced confidence in holding actual assets, with traders favoring leveraged bets instead—a sign of speculative behavior rather than long-term investment.
Q: How can institutional adoption affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Entry of firms like Charles Schwab brings legitimacy, improves accessibility, and increases demand—potentially driving sustained price growth over time.
Q: What is the significance of whales accumulating BTC?
A: Whale accumulation reflects strong conviction and reduced sell pressure. When large holders buy aggressively while others hesitate, it often precedes major price rallies.
Q: Is Bitcoin really approaching $100K?
A: Multiple technical and on-chain indicators suggest it's possible by mid-2025—if key resistance levels like $88,800 are breached and macro conditions remain favorable.
Q: How reliable are price predictions like $138K by year-end?
A: While forecasts from firms like 21Shares are based on solid data models, crypto markets are highly volatile. These projections should guide—not dictate—investment decisions.
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