Bitcoin’s price action over the past two years has resembled less of a meteoric ascent and more of a horizontal crawl. With no new all-time highs since late 2023, many investors have grown restless. Yet, beneath this surface-level stagnation, a compelling narrative is emerging—one that suggests the current lull isn’t a sign of weakness, but rather the quiet before the storm.
The Illusion of Inaction: What 36 Days Reveal
A recent in-depth analysis by market expert Crypto Con has turned heads across the crypto community. His chart, titled “Cycle 4 Ranges and Expansions,” uncovers a startling truth: despite nearly two full years of sideways movement, Bitcoin’s bull cycle may still be very much alive—and poised for a powerful breakout.
According to Crypto Con, only 36 days in the entire current cycle have seen Bitcoin achieve new local price highs. These brief bursts of explosive momentum account for nearly all of the asset’s gains during this period. The rest? A grinding consolidation phase lasting over 195 consecutive days since December 18, 2024.
That means the vast majority of Bitcoin’s price movement has been flat or slightly down, with long stretches where volatility evaporated and traders faced diminishing returns. Major range-bound phases in 2023 (192 days) and 2024 (238 days) set the stage for today’s nearly 200-day consolidation in 2025—a trend that’s testing even the most dedicated HODLers.
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But here’s the key insight: expansion phases in Bitcoin’s history are never gradual. They are sudden, violent, and often concentrated in just two to five trading sessions. The fact that such bursts have occurred within narrow windows before—and could happen again—suggests we may still be in the accumulation stage of a much larger upward move.
Why Sideways Action Builds Explosive Potential
At first glance, prolonged consolidation might look like weakness. But in Bitcoin’s case, it often signals strength brewing beneath the surface.
When Bitcoin trades sideways for extended periods, it allows for distribution from weak hands and accumulation by institutional players. This process creates a tighter, more resilient supply structure—fewer coins available for sale at any given price point. As selling pressure diminishes, even modest inflows can trigger outsized moves.
Crypto Con’s analysis shows that when expansion phases do occur, they are responsible for all significant price appreciation in each cycle. The current cycle has already seen just 5.76 months of actual upward momentum—a fraction of the total time elapsed. That leaves substantial room for future growth if historical patterns repeat.
Moreover, removing the expansion spikes from the price chart reveals an underlying trend that’s mostly flat or slightly downward. This suggests that without those short bursts, Bitcoin would have made little progress—highlighting just how critical timing and momentum can be for investors.
Historical Context: Halvings, Cycles, and Market Psychology
Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle remains one of the most reliable predictors of long-term price behavior. Each halving reduces the rate of new supply entering the market, historically leading to supply shortages and upward price pressure about 12–18 months later.
The most recent halving occurred in April 2024. Given this timing, many analysts believe we are still in the early to mid-stages of the current bull cycle—not the exhaustion phase some fear.
While retail sentiment has waned amid meme coin frenzies and AI token speculation, institutional participation continues to grow. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., increasing corporate treasury allocations, and global regulatory clarity are shifting the market dynamics away from pure speculation toward structural demand.
This shift means old-school technical models based solely on retail-driven cycles may no longer tell the whole story—but they still offer valuable clues.
The Road Ahead: Targets Between $165K and $180K
Despite trading around $107,000** as of mid-2025, Crypto Con projects that Bitcoin could surge toward **$165,000 to $180,000 in the next major expansion phase. That represents a potential increase of over 54% from current levels.
For context, such targets align with historical post-halving trajectories. After the 2016 and 2020 halvings, Bitcoin entered parabolic phases roughly 12–18 months later. With the 2024 halving still fresh, a similar move remains well within possibility—especially if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.
The critical takeaway? The next major move may come fast—and catch most investors off guard.
Past expansions have delivered massive returns in just a few sessions. Those waiting for clear signals or perfect entry points may miss out entirely. Patience during consolidation could be rewarded with explosive upside once momentum returns.
FAQ: Your Questions About Bitcoin’s Sideways Market—Answered
Q: Is Bitcoin still in a bull market if it hasn’t made new highs?
A: Yes. Historically, bull markets include extended consolidation phases where price grinds sideways before breaking out. The absence of new highs doesn’t mean the cycle is over—it may simply reflect accumulation before the next leg up.
Q: Why are only 36 days of gains so important?
A: Because nearly all of Bitcoin’s price increases happen in short, intense bursts. Missing these windows means missing most of the cycle’s profits. This underscores the importance of staying positioned rather than trying to time entries perfectly.
Q: Could this sideways trend continue for another year?
A: It’s possible. Previous cycles have seen consolidation last well over a year. However, with the 2024 halving acting as a catalyst, increased institutional adoption, and limited supply issuance, a breakout could accelerate sooner than expected.
Q: What triggers the next expansion phase?
A: Typically, a combination of macro factors—such as rate cuts, inflation data, ETF inflows, or geopolitical uncertainty—combined with technical breakout patterns and rising on-chain activity. Watch for surges in trading volume and whale accumulation as early signs.
Q: Should I buy now or wait for a dip?
A: Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is often the best strategy during uncertain phases. Trying to catch the exact bottom is risky; consistent investment through volatility helps reduce emotional decision-making and improves long-term outcomes.
Final Thoughts: Strength in Stillness
Bitcoin’s current sideways grind isn’t a failure—it’s a feature of its maturing market structure. What once looked like wild speculation is evolving into a predictable cycle driven by supply constraints, institutional demand, and global macro trends.
While retail interest drifts toward flashier assets, smart money continues to accumulate. The lack of volatility isn’t boredom—it’s compression. And when the spring finally releases, the move could be swift and severe in both directions.
For investors willing to endure the wait, the reward could be substantial.
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Core Keywords: Bitcoin bull cycle, sideways market, price consolidation, halving cycle, local price highs, institutional adoption, crypto market analysis, Bitcoin price prediction
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