Litecoin (LTC), once a top-tier cryptocurrency and a consistent performer in previous market cycles, has recently dipped below the critical $100 psychological level, signaling growing bearish momentum. After months of consolidation between $100 and $140, the price dropped sharply following a disappointing development in U.S. crypto policy. With technical indicators flashing red and key support levels breached, traders are now assessing whether this marks the beginning of a deeper correction—or merely a pause before the next bullish leg.
Litecoin’s Consolidation Breaks Down
For the past four months, Litecoin traded within a tight range of $100 to $140, forming what many analysts interpreted as a period of accumulation. However, that stability collapsed last week when LTC recorded its lowest daily close of 2025 at $94.62. This breakdown suggests that the consolidation phase may have ended in failure, with bears now firmly in control.
The decline was likely accelerated by macro-level news: U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans for a national Bitcoin reserve and named four other cryptocurrencies for inclusion—excluding Litecoin entirely. While not an official regulatory action, the omission sent shockwaves through the LTC community, contributing to the sell-off.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Patterns Emerge
Since June 2022, Litecoin has been trading within a long-term ascending parallel channel—a bullish formation defined by rising support and resistance lines. However, repeated failure to break above $105 has eroded confidence in the uptrend.
Over the past few months, LTC made three breakout attempts (marked on the weekly chart), each resulting in rejection and long upper wicks. These failed rallies confirm strong selling pressure near $105, which now acts as resistance rather than support.
With the price falling below this key zone, the structure of the channel is compromised. A drop below the midline of the channel would confirm a bearish reversal, invalidating the prior upward trend.
Key Technical Indicators Turn Negative
On the weekly timeframe, momentum indicators are aligning with the bearish narrative:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 50, indicating weakening momentum.
- The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has generated a bearish crossover, with both lines trending downward.
- No bullish divergences have formed on either indicator, reducing the likelihood of an imminent reversal.
If Litecoin closes below the channel’s midline on a weekly basis, a move toward the lower bound near $68 becomes increasingly probable.
On the daily chart, LTC is barely holding above the $97 horizontal support level. The March 9 close marked the lowest daily close of 2025, reinforcing downside pressure. Without a swift recovery, this level could give way, opening the door to further losses.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Is a Deep Correction Underway?
Applying Elliott Wave Theory offers additional insight into Litecoin’s potential trajectory. The most likely wave count suggests that the entire movement within the ascending channel since 2022 was part of a corrective A-B-C structure (labeled in green). If correct, this implies that the next phase should be a downward leg—potentially extending toward $65–$70.
While this outlook appears grim, there is a potential silver lining: the formation of a long-term symmetrical triangle. Such patterns often precede major breakouts after extended periods of consolidation. If this scenario plays out, Litecoin may not fall far beyond $65–$70 but instead enter a prolonged sideways phase before launching a significant upward move.
Importantly, this triangle would need to complete all internal waves—including the final E-wave (red)—which still points to additional downside before any bullish resumption.
What Could Reverse the Downtrend?
Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, certain conditions could signal a reversal:
- A daily close above $100, especially if accompanied by strong volume, could stabilize the market.
- A breakout above the descending resistance line of the potential symmetrical triangle would confirm a bullish shift.
- Renewed institutional interest or positive regulatory developments could reignite investor confidence.
Until one or more of these triggers occur, however, the path of least resistance remains downward.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why did Litecoin drop below $100?
A: The drop was triggered by a combination of technical breakdowns and fundamental disappointment—the exclusion of LTC from a U.S. crypto reserve proposal announced by former President Trump.
Q: What is the next support level for Litecoin?
A: The immediate support lies near $97. If broken, the next major targets are $85 and eventually $65–$70, depending on market momentum.
Q: Is Litecoin still a good investment?
A: While short-term indicators are bearish, Litecoin has historically recovered from deep corrections. Long-term investors may view lower prices as an accumulation opportunity—but only after thorough research and risk assessment.
Q: Can Litecoin recover if it breaks below $90?
A: Yes, recovery is always possible in crypto markets. However, such a break would likely extend selling pressure in the short term. A reversal would require strong buying volume and positive catalysts.
Q: What technical pattern is forming on Litecoin’s chart?
A: Analysts are watching for a potential long-term symmetrical triangle, which could lead to consolidation before a major breakout—either up or down.
Q: When might Litecoin reverse its downtrend?
A: A sustained close above $100—especially above $105—or bullish divergence on RSI/MACD could signal early signs of reversal.
Final Outlook: Caution Amidst Uncertainty
Litecoin’s current position reflects broader challenges facing mid-cap cryptocurrencies in uncertain macro environments. Once seen as a reliable “digital silver” to Bitcoin’s “gold,” LTC now faces questions about its relevance amid evolving regulatory landscapes and shifting investor priorities.
While technical models suggest further downside toward $65–$70, history shows that even prolonged bear phases eventually reverse. For now, traders should prioritize risk management, monitor key support zones closely, and remain alert for reversal signals on higher timeframes.