The Lunar New Year, especially within Chinese communities, is more than just a cultural celebration—it's a period of economic and financial shifts. While traditional markets in China shut down during this holiday, the cryptocurrency market never sleeps. This creates a unique trading environment known as the "Bitcoin Lunar New Year effect"—a phenomenon where BTC prices historically trend upward amid reduced liquidity and heightened sentiment among Asian traders.
But does this seasonal trend hold up in 2025? Is it wise to buy before the holiday and sell after? And what do top analysts say about Bitcoin’s price trajectory post-festival? Let’s dive into historical data, expert insights, and actionable strategies to help you navigate the Bitcoin Lunar New Year rally with confidence.
What Is the Bitcoin Lunar New Year Effect?
As financial markets across mainland China observe the Lunar New Year break, crypto exchanges continue operating 24/7. With a significant portion of global Bitcoin trading volume originating from Asia—particularly Chinese-speaking investors—this holiday period often sees altered market dynamics.
👉 Discover how global trading patterns shift during major holidays and uncover hidden opportunities.
The Bitcoin Lunar New Year effect refers to the recurring price trend where Bitcoin tends to rise during and immediately after the Spring Festival week. Analysts attribute this to several factors:
- Reduced market liquidity amplifying price swings
- Increased retail participation from holiday-trading investors
- Seasonal inflows of capital as digital asset adoption grows in Asia
- Positive market sentiment linked to new beginnings and cultural optimism
Despite no official closure of crypto markets, the confluence of behavioral finance and regional trading habits has created a measurable seasonal pattern—one that has delivered positive returns for nine consecutive years.
Historical Bitcoin Performance During Lunar New Year (2015–2024)
Based on TradingView data spanning the past decade, Bitcoin has posted gains in every Lunar New Year period from 2015 to 2024. Below is a year-by-year summary of BTC's performance during the holiday window (from the first day of the festival through the final holiday close):
- 2015: $232 → $241 (+3.88%)
- 2016: $371 → $407 (+9.7%)
- 2017: $908 → $987 (+8.7%)
- 2018: $9,350 → $11,780 (+26%)
- 2019: $3,406 → $3,662 (+7.51%)
- 2020: $8,280 → $9,444 (+4.06%)
- 2021: $43,746 → $50,603 (+15.68%)
- 2022: $38,034 → $42,702 (+12.27%)
- 2023: $20,869 → $23,954 (+14.78%)
- 2024: $44,325 → $52,093 (+17.53%)
Over this ten-year span, Bitcoin’s average Lunar New Year gain stands at +10.7%, with only one year dipping below 4%. Notably, 2018 and 2024 saw explosive rallies of over 17%, suggesting that bullish momentum may be intensifying in recent cycles.
This consistent upward bias supports the idea that the Lunar New Year effect isn’t just anecdotal—it’s statistically significant.
How to Trade Bitcoin During Chinese New Year: Expert Strategy
One of the most cited analyses comes from 10x Research, whose findings suggest a high-probability trading window around the festival.
According to their model:
Buy BTC three days before Lunar New Year begins and sell ten days after the holiday ends.
This simple rule-based strategy yielded positive returns in all nine years from 2015 to 2023, with an average return of 11% per cycle.
Let’s break down the historical returns using this method:
- 2015: +11%
- 2016: +9%
- 2017: +11%
- 2018: +7%
- 2019: +3%
- 2020: +7%
- 2021: +24%
- 2022: +12%
- 2023: +13%
Even more impressive? When applied to 2024:
- Buy on February 7 at $44,346
- Sell on February 20 at $52,275
- Result: +17.88% gain
This reinforces the idea that timing matters—and that seasonal patterns, when backed by data, can offer real edges in crypto trading.
Will Bitcoin Continue Rising After Lunar New Year 2025?
Looking ahead to early 2025, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s momentum beyond the holiday season.
Markus Thielen of 10x Research noted in late January that Bitcoin had broken out of a bullish wedge pattern after rebounding from $98,937. He observed that each upward leg in price added between **$16,000 and $18,000**, indicating strong underlying demand.
Thielen projects that if this trend continues without retesting key support levels, Bitcoin could reach $122,000 by February 2025—a bold forecast that aligns with broader macro expectations tied to the halving cycle and institutional inflows.
Additionally, Keith Alan, founder of quantitative analytics platform Material Indicators, highlighted that Bitcoin’s weekly chart has completed a classic cup-and-handle formation, a bullish technical pattern often preceding major breakout moves.
While such targets are ambitious, they reflect growing confidence in BTC’s long-term trajectory—even if short-term consolidation follows the holiday rally.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Has Bitcoin ever dropped during Lunar New Year?
A: From 2015 to 2024, Bitcoin recorded positive gains in every Lunar New Year period. There has been no negative return during this window in over a decade.
Q: Why does Bitcoin tend to rise during Chinese New Year?
A: Reduced liquidity increases volatility, while seasonal optimism and increased retail trading from Asian markets contribute to upward price pressure. Cultural factors and capital inflows also play a role.
Q: Should I buy Bitcoin before Lunar New Year?
A: Historical data and analyst models suggest favorable risk-reward for buying ahead of the festival. The "buy 3 days before, sell 10 days after" strategy has delivered consistent returns.
Q: What happens to Bitcoin after the holiday ends?
A: Prices often continue rising into February. Some analysts predict further upside toward $120K+, though short-term consolidation may occur as traders take profits.
Q: Is the Lunar New Year effect reliable for future predictions?
A: While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, the consistency of gains over ten years makes this a noteworthy seasonal trend worth monitoring.
Q: Are there risks involved in trading this pattern?
A: Yes. Market conditions change—especially with growing institutional involvement. Always use stop-losses and position sizing appropriate to your risk tolerance.
Final Thoughts: Capitalizing on Seasonal Momentum
The Bitcoin Lunar New Year rally is one of the most consistent seasonal patterns in crypto markets. Supported by a decade of positive returns and validated by independent research firms like 10x Research, it presents a compelling case for strategic entry and exit planning.
While no pattern lasts forever, understanding these behavioral trends gives traders an informational edge. Whether you're a short-term speculator or a long-term holder, aligning your strategy with market rhythms can improve outcomes.
As we enter 2025—the Year of the Snake—the stage may be set for another strong performance. With technical indicators flashing bullish signals and momentum building toward potential new highs, now is the time to prepare.
👉 Stay ahead of seasonal trends and access real-time market data to refine your trading edge.
Remember: Always do your own research, manage risk wisely, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
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